{"id":5361,"date":"2020-11-03T12:09:42","date_gmt":"2020-11-03T11:09:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thedailyleaks.com\/?p=5361"},"modified":"2020-11-03T12:22:36","modified_gmt":"2020-11-03T11:22:36","slug":"us-election-trump-or-biden-presidency-investors-expect-weaker-dollar-as-america-votes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedailyleaks.com\/us-election-trump-or-biden-presidency-investors-expect-weaker-dollar-as-america-votes\/","title":{"rendered":"US Election: Trump or Biden presidency, investors expect weaker dollar as America votes"},"content":{"rendered":"

The battered dollar\u2019s long-term fortunes are unlikely to improve regardless of who wins Tuesday\u2019s U.S. presidential election, investors and analysts said.<\/p>\n

Despite its recent bounce against a basket of currencies, the dollar index\u00a0=USD<\/a>\u00a0is still down about 9% from its March highs and on track for its worst year since 2017, weighed down by expectations that U.S. rates will remain near historic lows for years to come.<\/p>\n

Many market participants believe that a victory by Joe Biden – currently the front-runner in polls – and a potential Democratic sweep would likely weigh on the U.S. currency further, as the former vice president is expected to open the door to policies that investors view as dollar-negative, including robust fiscal stimulus.<\/p>\n

Four more years of a Donald Trump presidency may offer a less-clear path for the dollar. Although a continuation of Trump\u2019s belligerent approach toward China would likely boost the dollar\u2019s allure as a haven asset, those gains may be outweighed by factors such as continued negative U.S. real yields, analysts said.<\/p>\n

A Reuters<\/a> poll last month showed analysts\u2019 median forecast looking for the euro to rise to $1.21 in a year, up about 4% from current levels.<\/p>\n

Here are some of the main factors expected to influence the dollar over the long term.<\/p>\n

Graphic: What’s the difference?<\/p>\n

\"Reuters<\/a><\/div>\n

RATE DIFFERENTIALS<\/h2>\n

For years, comparatively high U.S. interest rates relative to other developed countries supported the dollar by making it more attractive to investors seeking yield.<\/p>\n

That yield advantage shrank in 2020, when the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to combat the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic and pledged to keep them at historic lows for years.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe biggest FX trends …will be the COVID-induced downward convergence of interest rates,\u201d said Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, in a note to clients. This \u201cis unambiguously negative for the dollar, and far from priced-in.\u201d<\/p>\n

Graphic: Negativity<\/p>\n

\"Reuters<\/a><\/div>\n

REAL YIELDS<\/h2>\n

Real, or inflation-adjusted, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries plunged below zero in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic. That has diminished the dollar\u2019s attractiveness and fueled rallies in everything from stocks to gold.<\/p>\n

A Reuters poll in September showed analysts expected the yield to rise to 0.93% in 12 months, about half the expected average inflation rate, suggesting negative real returns over the coming year.<\/p>\n

ALSO READ:\u00a0US Election 2020: Global stocks rise as Americans decide on Biden or Trump presidency<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cWe do not see a scenario which would derail a resumption of the (dollar\u2019s) current broad downtrend, as U.S. real yields are likely to remain negative,\u201d analysts at BNP Paribas wrote.<\/p>\n

Graphic: Fuel for a rally?<\/p>\n

\n
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"Reuters<\/a><\/div>\n

SHORT SQUEEZE?<\/h2>\n

Net bets against the dollar stood at $26.46 billion in the futures market last week after hitting a more than 9-year high of $34.07 billion in August.\u00a0NETUSDALL=<\/a><\/p>\n

While that short position reflects the negative sentiment swirling around the dollar, it could also fuel gains if a change in the narrative forced investors to unwind those bets all at once.<\/p>\n

The uncertainty surrounding a contested election could be one such event. Some analysts believe a Trump win or divided government – which could result in a smaller or delayed fiscal stimulus package – may be another.<\/p>\n

Because the market consensus appears to lean heavily on a Biden win, \u201ca Trump victory is hugely bullish for the (dollar),\u201d analysts at TD securities wrote. \u201cThe market is not priced for a return of fresh geopolitical uncertainty and zero-sum, tit-for-tat trade battles.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

RESERVE STATUS<\/h2>\n

Trump has railed against a strong dollar throughout most of his term, complaining that it gives other nations an unfair competitive advantage in trade.<\/p>\n

Graphic: Trump and the U.S. dollar,<\/p>\n

\"Reuters<\/a><\/div>\n

Although the accelerated fiscal spending expected in a potential Biden presidency may weigh on the dollar, some believe the Democrat\u2019s less confrontational approach to foreign policy may bolster the dollar\u2019s appeal as a reserve currency.<\/p>\n

Biden \u201cwill not talk the (dollar) down; and he will embrace multilateralism, including the framework that has built and supported the (dollar\u2019s) reserve currency status,\u201d wrote Alan Ruskin of Deutsche Bank.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The battered dollar\u2019s long-term fortunes are unlikely to improve regardless of who wins Tuesday\u2019s U.S. presidential election, investors and analysts said. Despite its recent bounce against a basket of currencies, the dollar index\u00a0=USD\u00a0is still down […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5367,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,10,2,7],"tags":[1071,865,142,134],"coauthors":[25],"class_list":{"0":"post-5361","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-latest-news","8":"category-politics","9":"category-top-news","10":"category-world","11":"tag-america-votes","12":"tag-biden","13":"tag-trump","14":"tag-us-election"},"yoast_head":"\nUS Election: Trump or Biden presidency, investors expect weaker dollar as America votes - The Daily Leaks<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thedailyleaks.com\/us-election-trump-or-biden-presidency-investors-expect-weaker-dollar-as-america-votes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US Election: Trump or Biden presidency, investors expect weaker dollar as America votes - The Daily Leaks\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The battered dollar\u2019s long-term fortunes are unlikely to improve regardless of who wins Tuesday\u2019s U.S. presidential election, investors and analysts said. 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