March 1, 2026
Global oil prices surged by around 10 per cent as Brent crude climbed to roughly $80 a barrel after fresh US and Israeli military strikes on Iran triggered fears of broader conflict in the Middle East and potential supply disruptions, analysts say.
The escalation has disrupted crude, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route for more than 20 per cent of global oil, prompting many tanker operators to suspend transit amid Tehran’s warnings.
Energy experts warn that if the situation escalates further and the strait remains effectively closed for a prolonged period, oil could spike to around $100 a barrel or beyond once markets reopen.
ICIS director of energy and refining Ajay Parmar said the closure of the strait is the key driver behind the current price jump and that Brent might open “much closer to $100 a barrel,” potentially exceeding that level if outages persist.
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Other analysts from RBC and Barclays echoed the view that sustained tension could push prices into triple‑digit territory.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers known as OPEC+ agreed to a modest output increase of about 206,000 barrels per day from April, but this represents a small fraction of global demand and is unlikely to calm markets unless geopolitical risks ease.
Rystad Energy economist Jorge Leon estimates that even with some alternative pipeline flows, the net loss of supply if the strait remains closed could be 8 million to 10 million barrels per day, underpinning the possibility of further price rises.
Asian governments and refiners are reassessing oil stockpiles and alternative shipping arrangements in anticipation of continued disruption, while investors weigh the broader economic consequences should crude prices breach the $100 mark.
